March 29, 2020

10% decrease in the number of doctors in the coming years

According to the study of the Directorate of Research, Studies, Evaluation and Statistics (DREES), in a study published in February "Medical demography to 2030: new national and regional projections" , the medical density per 100,000 inhabitants would increase from 327 to 292 between 2006 and 2030.
Less of doctors in perspective. In 2006, there were 208,000 people in France doctors. According to the study's forecasts, a total of 188,000 doctors in 2019 before the observation of a slight rise.
The decline in the number of employees would be greater among specialists. If in 2006 there were 104 000, the study predicts that they would be 101 000 in 2030. On the other hand, the number of doctors generalists would remain stable at around 105 000.
By touring the regions, we can note profound changes. Disparities will emerge at the regional level with for example a decrease in medical density in regions such as Corsica (-35%), Ile-de-France (-26%) or Midi-Pyrénées (-22 %) that would be "below the national average". In Franche-Comté, Brittany or Auvergne, the trend is reversed: they could see the number of doctors increase from 10 to 16%.
The study also highlights a "rejuvenation" of doctors in 2030. Indeed, the average age should reach 44.5 years against 48.8 years in 2006. And the share of women doctors from 39% in 2006 to 53.8% in 2030, of which 56.4% are generalists.

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